Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 32.140441 38.139610 44.711564 52.414490 61.163234 70.758323 82.043863
2025-02-02 24.738808 33.086497 43.103271 55.867643 71.548270 90.024601 113.269610
2025-02-09 19.879725 29.206837 41.210959 57.488227 78.645269 104.854771 139.373891
2025-02-16 16.392885 26.145414 39.475292 58.513378 84.423731 117.829183 163.429717
2025-02-23 13.481921 23.230287 37.317656 58.404361 88.295068 128.192318 184.347902
2025-03-02 10.953564 20.365408 34.720585 57.185191 90.256520 135.820736 201.746938
2025-03-09 9.189233 18.347473 33.029127 56.946900 93.359977 144.938668 221.367664
2025-03-16 7.176655 15.523459 29.661550 53.718186 91.674775 147.025997 231.097031
2025-03-23 6.391569 14.716165 29.425818 55.289651 97.193923 159.617520 256.144495
2025-03-30 5.340809 13.205351 27.779423 54.351530 98.665899 166.213150 272.681462
2025-04-06 4.964631 12.959615 28.314464 57.070884 106.050257 181.956892 303.253569
2025-04-13 3.862621 10.968228 25.380935 53.482342 102.865962 181.283678 309.118009
2025-04-20 3.429359 10.440624 25.308469 55.245697 109.167122 196.428580 340.888273
2025-04-27 3.206022 10.376913 26.180190 58.886905 119.032341 217.919387 383.730955
2025-05-04 2.837286 9.861586 26.040675 60.580277 125.586146 234.354345 419.316552
2025-05-11 2.473074 9.259713 25.617043 61.650080 131.055934 249.219080 452.954312
2025-05-18 2.084935 8.477001 24.663117 61.536342 134.320563 260.507325 481.225996
2025-05-25 1.694580 7.557691 23.233570 60.264171 135.292618 267.890521 503.344385
2025-06-01 1.421277 6.912673 22.345758 60.015497 138.133181 278.546128 531.187622
2025-06-08 1.064914 5.832071 20.154232 56.645252 134.626726 277.862994 539.939287
2025-06-15 0.953629 5.615948 20.193887 58.285799 141.120912 295.179877 579.771104
2025-06-22 0.773943 5.045917 19.156368 57.306484 142.226575 302.796562 603.189062
2025-06-29 0.727269 5.031845 19.703932 60.144884 151.347415 325.388813 653.268074